A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
